Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Explained: Where We Are & When the Bear Market Bottoms (2026 Prediction)
Every few months, someone declares the four-year cycle dead. But the cycle is still the simplest framework we have for answering two questions every investor asks in a drawdown: how long does this last, and how far down does it go? This session walked through the historical data, applied it to the current market, and then stress-tested the conclusion against the chart.
What the Last Three Cycles Actually Show
Only three complete cycles have played out, which is a small sample — worth saying out loud before anyone treats these numbers as law.
Across those three, the bull phase ran a little over 1,000 days and the bear phase averaged 371 days: 410 days in the first, roughly 363–366 in the second, and 378 in the third. That gives a typical range of 364 to 378 days.
The all-time highs tell their own story: $1,163, then $19,783, then $69,000, and most recently around $126,200. The multiples shrank each time — 17x, then about 3.5x, then roughly 2 to 2.2x. Law of diminishing returns as the market matures and more capital enters.
If you want the broader framework behind these phases, it helps to understand how crypto market cycles repeat across bull and bear phases before applying any date to your own plan.
Where That Puts Us Right Now
The cycle peak was October 6, 2025. Applying the 371-day average puts the bear market bottom around October 12, 2026, with a range of roughly October 5 to October 19.
That means at the time of recording we're 289 days in — nearly 80% through the bear market, with about 75 days left if the pattern holds. Price sat around $66,000, down from the $126,200 peak, with a cycle low near $60,000. Fear and greed readings are in fear, which is exactly what you'd expect halfway through a 50% drawdown.
Project it forward and the next bull market would run into 2029, with a rough target of $300,000 to $350,000 using a ~2.5x multiple off prior highs. Estimates vary wildly. This one is simply past numbers adjusted forward.
How Low Could It Go?
Prior bears dropped 87%, 84%, and 78% from their highs. This one is only down about 52% so far. On paper, a 70–78% drawdown would put Bitcoin somewhere between $28,000 and $38,000.
But context matters. Spot ETFs opened a channel for capital that didn't exist in prior cycles — advisors and institutions can now get exposure without custodying wallets for every client. Treasury buyers changed the demand picture too. Halvings matter less each time, and liquidity and rates drive more of the move.
There's also front-running: if everyone knows the model, some buyers step in early, which can shorten the bear and pull the rebound forward.
The chart adds one more layer. On the weekly, the 200-week simple moving average is the level most people watch in bear markets as a rough floor. A drop to $38,000 would sit far below it — surprising, though not impossible. If you're checking that level yourself, TradingView's weekly charting makes it straightforward to overlay a 200-week SMA and mark your own bid levels. It's worth setting up a weekly chart with moving averages for crypto analysis rather than relying on someone else's screenshot.
Three Ways to Approach the Remaining Window
Lump sum — deploy now and accept the risk of more downside.
Dollar cost averaging — $1,000 a week for ten weeks across the remaining window. You buy at $66K, maybe $54K, maybe $40K, maybe on the way back up, and you end up with an average.
Ladder bids — resting orders at $60K, $50K, $40K, $30K. Only the ones that get hit fill.
DCA and ladder bids both remove emotion from the decision. You decide the rule once, then execute it. Nobody buys the exact bottom on purpose — that's luck, and the same is true of selling. If you're still weighing where we sit, these weekly chart signals for judging whether the bear market is over are worth reviewing alongside the cycle math.
Want to work through cycle positioning with other investors and follow the live Wednesday investing sessions? Join the community at skool.com/crypto-profit and bring your own plan for the next 75 days.
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