Bitcoin Death Cross Just Hit While Stocks Sit at Record Highs (Crypto School Live Videos)
The Dow Jones printed all-time highs near 54,000 on August 10th. Oil sat around $80 on Iran-related supply concerns, above the roughly $70 longer-term average. And crypto? Still stuck inside a downtrend that hasn't technically broken. That gap between traditional markets and crypto is the whole story of this Monday update.
Here's what the weekly charts actually showed, and why a death cross isn't automatically bad news.
The Weekly Structure Still Says Bear Market
Total crypto market cap is still making lower lows and lower highs on the weekly chart. That's the textbook definition of a downtrend, and it hasn't been invalidated yet. To start making the bull market argument, total market cap needs to reclaim roughly the 2.71–2.75 trillion area.
There are early signs worth watching. The MACD crossed over about four or five weeks ago, which is bullish, though it has since gone flat and sideways. On-balance volume is more interesting: price made a lower low, but volume did not. Volume went sideways instead. Volume usually stops falling and consolidates before an uptrend begins, so flat OBV against a lower price low is constructive rather than alarming.
If you want to follow the same weekly checklist each week, the process for reading weekly chart signals in a crypto bear market is worth learning before you act on any single indicator.
Bitcoin Dominance, Ethereum, and Where the Money Sits
Bitcoin dominance is sitting near 60% and has been sideways for a long stretch. That matters because when Bitcoin is 60% of the total market, the total market chart is essentially a Bitcoin chart with extra steps. Understanding why Bitcoin dominance shapes altcoin performance explains why altcoins keep failing to break out on their own.
The ETH/BTC ratio has been in a downtrend and may be topping out. In 2021, Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin coincided with the altcoin run, largely because you had to route through ETH to buy altcoins. Stablecoins have changed that plumbing, so the signal may carry less weight this cycle. Still, watching what the ETH/BTC ratio says about market leadership is part of the weekly routine. Ethereum's volume profile since 2021 centers around $1,800, which many would call fair value over the last five years.
What the Death Cross Actually Means Historically
The death cross is the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day. It sounds terrifying. Historically, in 2015, 2018, and the last cycle, the death cross showed up near the bottoming process, not the start of the collapse. The move came after the second cross, when the faster average pushed back above the slower one.
Bitcoin has now printed that death cross. The next thing to watch is the recross. There's also an October 12th date circulating, based on an average of 371 days across the past three four-year cycles before Bitcoin bottomed and turned. That's roughly eight weeks out. It could come earlier, later, or not at all.
To track any of this yourself, you need charting that handles moving averages, OBV, MACD, and custom alerts on weekly timeframes. Setting up moving average and momentum indicators on TradingView lets you watch for the recross without staring at screens every day.
The Altcoin Math Nobody Is Doing
The "others" index, which strips out the top 10 coins, peaked near $500 billion in 2021 and now sits around $160 billion. That's a 3x just to reclaim the old high. Add roughly 30% inflation since 2021 and you're looking at close to $700 billion inflation-adjusted to merely match 2021.
The catch: averages hide the wreckage. If the average altcoin does 5x and some do 20x, others go to zero. Dot-com rules apply. Selectivity matters more than exposure. This is educational content, not financial advice.
Want to see the full 20-minute Bitcoin breakdown, the 371-day cycle math, and the live Monday market updates as they happen? Join the community at skool.com/crypto-profit and sit in on the live sessions five days a week.
---
Affiliate Disclosure: This site may contain affiliate links. If you use them, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.