Crypto Market Update: Bear Market Breakouts - Crypto Surges 35% in 5 Weeks
Recorded on the evening of September 21, this weekly update walks through the same high-level indicators every week — macro first, then crypto, then altcoins. The headline: for the first time in a long while, the total crypto market broke its bear market structure on the weekly chart.
Nothing here is financial or legal advice. It's educational only.
Macro First: Dow Jones and Oil
The Dow Jones is still above 50,000 and up roughly 12% over the last year. Why does that matter for crypto? Because both are risk assets. Right now crypto is correlated to equities — when people are fearful in stocks, they tend to be more fearful in crypto. Equities moved first for quite a while; crypto now appears to be turning.
Oil futures sit around $92 a barrel, down from above $100 just days earlier. Over the last 15 years the average has been closer to $70. Getting back to $70 — or below — would be good for the whole world, because energy still makes the global economy run. Venezuela, the UAE leaving OPEC, and more U.S. supply on the market are all part of that picture.
The Bear Pattern That Just Broke
A bull structure is a series of higher highs and higher lows. A bear structure is lower highs and lower lows — and that's exactly what the total crypto market cap has printed for months.
Last week's weekly candle changed that. It closed above the prior high, which makes it a higher high rather than another lower high. That's significant. The MACD on the weekly has also crossed up and hasn't reversed, with momentum building. Understanding where you sit between phases is the whole game, and it helps to know how to tell a bull regime from a bear regime in crypto before adding risk.
One caveat: the current weekly candle isn't finished. Weekly candles open Monday and close Sunday, so it could still end far lower. Only closed candles are set in stone.
Bitcoin shows nearly the identical pattern — it's trading above the prior high but hasn't closed above it yet. Total market cap is around $2.9 trillion, up from $2.14 trillion roughly five to six weeks ago. Also on the chart: October 12, drawn from past cycles where the average bear-to-bull transition took about 371 days. That number means almost nothing on its own, but front-running is real — if enough people believe the old pattern repeats, they buy early.
Dominance, ETH, and Where Altcoins Stand
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D on TradingView) has hovered near 60% for over a year. That's the interesting part: the total market added enormous market cap while dominance stayed flat, which means everything outside Bitcoin rose roughly in proportion. If Bitcoin alone were driving the move, dominance would be climbing to 70% or 80%. Watching how bitcoin dominance shifts capital into altcoins is one of the cleanest reads available.
The ETH/BTC ratio is also turning — Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin has historically signaled rotation into altcoins, though there are reasons to hold reservations this cycle. Ethereum was the first major asset to break the bear pattern on the weekly, and it's held that break for four or five weeks. Its volume profile shows thinning resistance on the way back toward the old high near $4,800 — and inflation since 2021 means an inflation-adjusted high would sit meaningfully higher.
On "OTHERS" — the altcoin market cap excluding the top 10 — the number is around $240 billion versus a 2021 high near $500 billion. Volume finally pushed higher over the last two weeks, and price has closed above the prior low three times. Volume precedes price; without demand confirming the move, drops of around 50% are normal.
If you want to reproduce these charts yourself, the free tier of TradingView covers total market cap, BTC.D, MACD, and on-balance volume, and the paid tiers add more alerts and layouts. Learning to read crypto charts and indicators on TradingView is the most transferable skill in this whole update. Meanwhile, the Coin Market Cap altcoin season index sits mid-range — not Bitcoin season, not yet a confirmed altcoin season for the top 100 coins.
Want to go deeper on MACD, on-balance volume, and volume profile with 37 structured courses and direct discussion? Join the community at skool.com/crypto-profit and work through the indicators alongside people running the same weekly process.
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