Crypto Market Update: Did Crypto Already Peak… Or Did the Bull Market Never End?
The total crypto market on a weekly chart is showing bear market structure — lower lows, weak volume, a struggling MACD, and an oversold RSI. But two specific charts raise a question that most market commentary is skipping: did Bitcoin and Ethereum ever actually reach a genuine bull market peak in this cycle? The answer is less obvious than it looks.
What the Total Market Weekly Chart Is Telling Us
The setup is straightforward on the weekly total market cap chart. After 2021's highs, the market made a series of higher highs and higher lows — classic bull market structure. Most of the recent pullback looked like a correction within that trend. But then the market broke down with a lower low on the weekly. That's the technical signal that flips the interpretation from "correction within a bull" to "bear market." Volume is weak, MACD is deteriorating, and RSI has reached oversold territory for the first time in a while. Whether oversold means imminent reversal or sustained downtrend depends on what comes next — no indicator resolves that in isolation.
Ethereum's Price History and What the Rainbow Chart Shows
Here's where things get interesting. Ethereum's 2025 high came in at roughly the same price level as its 2021 high. Adjusted for market evolution and increased token supply, that's arguably a flat cycle rather than a new bull market peak. From that 2025 high near $5,000, ETH has since dropped to around $2,000 — a significant decline that looks bear-like on a chart.
But overlay the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart on this — available on blockchain.com — and a different picture emerges. The rainbow chart uses color bands to indicate historically overbought and oversold price zones relative to Bitcoin's long-run growth trend. In the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, Bitcoin price pushed firmly into the "maximum bubble territory" bands at cycle peaks. In the current cycle, Bitcoin peaked around $120,000 and barely touched the light orange "hold" band. Not even a single shade into the "consider selling" zone. For a cycle to truly peak in the historical sense, you'd expect to see price reach those upper bands. This one never did.
Ethereum shows the same pattern on its own rainbow chart — barely into a hold zone, nowhere near the overbought zones that characterized 2017 and 2021 peaks.
Understanding whether we're in a bear market or a prolonged correction is one of the harder calls in crypto. The framework for identifying bull vs. bear market regimes using multiple timeframes and indicators covers how to think through this systematically rather than reacting to weekly moves.
What This Means for Altcoins Right Now
Many altcoins are trading near multi-year lows — some approaching all-time lows. That creates a different decision framework than a late-stage bull market. Rather than chasing breakouts, the current environment may favor rotation: moving out of underperforming positions and into ones with stronger relative setups. The argument isn't that everything will recover, but that with capital already deployed, rotating toward stronger charts doesn't require predicting the macro turn — it just positions you better if and when it comes.
This is also the environment where understanding altcoin season indicators and what drives rotation from Bitcoin becomes practically useful — not as prediction, but as a framework for recognizing early signs of a shift.
For traders looking to act on individual altcoin setups during volatile periods, having a reliable charting setup with clean indicators matters more than ever. The MEXC exchange is worth considering for buying lower-cap altcoins that aren't available on major US platforms — particularly during accumulation phases when selection and fees both matter.
The Unresolved Question
The honest answer to "did we already peak?" is: unclear. The technical structure of the total market says bear. The rainbow charts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum say this cycle never reached historically typical euphoria levels. Both things can coexist — markets can turn bearish before they reach prior peak indicators. But the absence of a confirmed blowoff top is a reason to avoid writing off upside entirely.
If you want to track these market signals week by week alongside a group working through the same questions, the community at skool.com/crypto-profit includes a trading course, TradingView scripts, and weekly market discussions that go deeper than a single chart read. It's worth checking out if navigating market cycles is part of your strategy.
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