Crypto Market Update: Ethereum Breaks Bullish — But Bitcoin & Altcoins Aren't Ready
This week's Monday market review starts wide and narrows down: global macro first, then total market cap, then Bitcoin, Ethereum, and finally the altcoin complex. The short version is that one chart broke its bear structure — and it wasn't Bitcoin.
Macro First: Equities and the Oil Problem
Equities and crypto still move together, so the Dow holding above 50,000 is a reasonable backdrop for risk assets. The more interesting chart is oil. Futures are back above $100 a barrel on global supply concerns, well above the roughly $70 average of the last 15 to 20 years. Earlier in the year it pushed toward $120.
There are reasons to expect relief: Venezuela has increased production, the UAE left OPEC, and US output has ramped up over the past two years. If the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves, oil could come down quickly. Cheaper energy is good for every economy and good for risk-on assets like crypto.
Total Market Cap and Bitcoin: Still Inside the Bear Pattern
Total crypto market cap sits near $2.65 trillion. A bear market is defined structurally by lower highs and lower lows on the weekly, and despite a strong four-to-five week rally, the total market has not yet closed a weekly candle above the prior swing high. Technically, the bear pattern is intact.
Bitcoin looks nearly identical, which makes sense — it's about 60% of the market. Weekly MACD momentum still looks constructive, and historically bear markets have averaged around 371 days before rolling into a bull, but averages aren't guarantees.
Bitcoin dominance is the next tell. In 2021, dominance fell from roughly 73% to the high-30s as capital rotated outward. It's been pinned around 60% for roughly 13 months. Anyone learning to read Bitcoin dominance as a rotation signal should watch for a sustained break lower, because that's usually when altcoins start outperforming.
Ethereum Is the One Chart That Broke Out
Ethereum has now closed four consecutive weekly candles above the previous swing high. That is a genuine break of the bear structure — something neither total market cap nor Bitcoin has managed.
The volume profile explains the speed. Below current price there was a heavy activity node around fair value near $1,800, then far thinner participation above it. Less historical activity means less resistance, which is why price tore through an entire zone in a single week. The next thickening of volume sits up toward roughly $3,000, so expect slower grind through those levels.
Whether ETH still works as a rotation signal is debatable. Stablecoins are far larger now, so buyers may not need ETH to reach other assets the way they did in 2021. Still, Ethereum holds around 80% of DeFi total value locked and remains number two by market cap. Traders tracking how the ETH/BTC ratio signals leadership changes should treat it as one input, not a verdict.
Altcoins: Good Momentum, Bad Volume
The "OTHERS" index — top 10 and stablecoins excluded — looks strong on the surface. Weekly MACD crossed up, and every prior upside cross produced a run. No downside cross yet.
The problem is on-balance volume. At this price level, OBV is lower than it was the last time price visited here. Volume precedes price. A rally without expanding volume suggests demand isn't genuinely overwhelming supply, and moves like that tend to retrace quickly. That's the reason for waiting before adding to altcoin positions — even if it means missing the first leg. More context on this dynamic is in why altcoins lag behind Bitcoin rallies.
If you want to build these charts yourself — BTC.D, ETH/BTC, OTHERS, volume profile, and OBV on weekly timeframes — TradingView is the platform used throughout this update, and setting up a weekly crypto charting workspace takes about twenty minutes.
Want the live Monday sessions, five-days-a-week research, and the full course library on indicators like OBV and volume profile? Join the community at skool.com/crypto-profit and work through these charts alongside other traders each week.
---
Affiliate Disclosure: This site may contain affiliate links. If you use them, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.