Crypto Markets Are Still in a Bear - But These Signals Are Turning (Crypto School Live Training)
Monday market updates always start the same way: look at the whole forest before you study individual trees. In this August 3rd live session, the overall picture is still a bear market structure — but several underlying signals have started pointing in a friendlier direction. Here's what was covered, and how to think about it without jumping to conclusions.
The Market Structure Hasn't Confirmed a Turn Yet
On the weekly chart, total crypto market cap is still printing lower highs and lower lows. That is the textbook definition of a downtrend, and nothing about a few good headlines changes it. To call this a bull market, price needs to break above the most recent swing high — with supporting indicators — not just bounce.
Bitcoin drives most of this. At roughly 60% dominance, the Bitcoin chart and the total market chart look nearly identical, which is why understanding how Bitcoin dominance shapes altcoin performance matters before you start hunting for rotation trades. One historical timing study discussed in the session, based on how long prior bear and bull phases lasted, points to somewhere around October 12th as a potential turning window. That's pattern-based, not prophecy.
Ethereum, the ETH/BTC Ratio, and the Others Chart
The second thing to watch is relative performance. The ETH/BTC line has been falling, meaning Bitcoin has been outperforming Ethereum. In the last cycle, that line shooting upward is what preceded the broader move. Right now there's no confirmation of that rotation, so it stays on the watchlist. Tracking the ETH to BTC ratio as a leadership signal is one of the cleanest ways to spot when capital starts shifting.
On Ethereum's weekly chart, a volume profile shows the heaviest historical volume clustered at two price levels, with a fair value area near $1,800 dating back to before the 2021 run. Price has been leaning on those levels as support. It could bounce from here, or it could keep grinding lower — plenty of analysts expect another month or two of weakness.
For altcoins, the "Others" chart (everything outside the top 10) sits near $160 billion, well below the 2021 high near $500 billion, and has been chopping around the same area for a long time.
The Signals That Are Actually Turning
Several macro and sentiment inputs look better than price does:
- Fear and Greed is in the fear zone, which is consistent with a down market.
- Altcoin season index sits mid-range; above roughly 75 is when altcoins are broadly beating Bitcoin.
- Global M2 money supply decoupled from Bitcoin around November 2025. Either the correlation is dead, or the gap eventually closes with a fast move higher.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI has held above 50 for seven straight months, signaling expansion.
- Bitcoin seasonality: August and September are historically weak, while Q4 has typically been strong.
- Dow Jones is near all-time intraday highs, and a resolved Iran situation could push oil lower — a tailwind for everything.
One caution worth repeating: Wyckoff accumulation overlays are being drawn very differently by different analysts. Some place Bitcoin past the spring low already; others say the final flush into the 40s or 50s is still ahead. Same schematic, opposite conclusions. Most technical indicators describe what already happened rather than predict what's next.
If you want to track these charts yourself instead of relying on screenshots, a charting platform like TradingView makes it straightforward to set up weekly crypto charts and custom indicators for total market cap, dominance, and ratio pairs. Building your own view is how you stop borrowing conviction from strangers.
The Takeaway: Dollar-Cost Averaging Over Prediction
The honest conclusion from this session was that the market may go sideways or slightly lower for another month or two, even with positive signals stacking up. Some of that October move may even get front-run as more people watch the same charts. In that environment, the stated approach is simple: dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and Ethereum on a weekly or monthly schedule. You won't call the exact bottom. You just need to make more than you lose. If you want the full framework, here's how to read weekly chart signals for a bear market bottom.
Live training runs five days a week at 12:00 Eastern — market updates Monday, copy trading Tuesday, investing Wednesday, trading Thursday, and DeFi Friday, plus 120+ course videos. If you want to ask questions in real time and walk through these charts together, you can join the Crypto School community at skool.com/crypto-profit.
Educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
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