TOKENS: HBAR Price Prediction: Where Hedera Could Go Next (Key Levels to Watch)
HBAR was called as a buy at 4 cents, ran to 40 cents, and has since pulled back to around 10 cents. This video looks at what the weekly chart is actually saying about where it might go next — using MACD and RSI rather than project news or marketing developments. The technical read is more useful for timing than fundamentals alone, and the weekly timeframe reduces noise significantly.
How to Read MACD on a Weekly Chart
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a momentum indicator that tracks the relationship between two moving averages of price. In simple terms: when buyers are outnumbering sellers with increasing force, MACD trends positive. When sellers dominate, it trends negative. The histogram bars show the strength of that momentum — taller bars indicate stronger directional pressure, shorter bars indicate the momentum is slowing.
The key event to watch is the crossover — when the MACD line crosses above or below the signal line. On HBAR's weekly chart, these crossovers have been remarkably predictive. When the line crossed into green histogram territory during the previous move, HBAR ran from 4 cents to 40 cents. When it crossed back to red, price declined steadily. The pattern has repeated across multiple cycles on this timeframe.
As of this recording, the histogram bars have been dark red for an extended period — but they've recently shifted lighter red and are becoming shorter. The two lines appear to be converging, which typically precedes a crossover. This doesn't guarantee an upward move, but it's a notable change in the character of the chart that increases the probability of a momentum shift.
What the RSI Is Adding to the Picture
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is generally considered overbought — price has moved up faster than sustainable momentum supports. Below 30 is oversold — price has fallen to a degree that historically precedes reversals.
HBAR's RSI on the weekly has never actually dipped below 30, but at the time of this analysis it's at its lowest level in the asset's history. The prior major top — when HBAR peaked near 40 cents — had RSI approaching 90, which is extremely elevated. The current reading near historical lows, combined with converging MACD lines, means any reversal would be coming off a more compressed, historically oversold base. Reversals from deeply oversold RSI levels tend to carry more momentum than those from neutral RSI territory.
The 40-Cent Level and Price Discovery
Here's the price action dynamic that matters most going forward. HBAR has previously traded throughout the range between roughly 4 cents and 40 cents — meaning buyers and sellers have established history at every price point in that range. There's distributed supply across the whole zone. Moving through it requires absorbing that existing supply, which provides friction but also offers price support on the way up.
The moment HBAR breaks and closes above 40 cents, something structurally changes: every single person currently holding HBAR will be in profit for the first time. No holder carries a cost basis above 40 cents. That dynamic removes a significant source of sell pressure — people holding at a loss tend to sell into any meaningful bounce to recover their position. Once everyone is green, that overhead supply largely disappears, and price can move into genuine discovery — territory it has never traded in before.
That's why 40 cents is the level to watch, not as a target but as a threshold. Clearing it changes the supply/demand structure meaningfully.
This kind of multi-indicator weekly chart analysis is exactly what the TradingView charting platform is built for — MACD, RSI, volume profiles, and Fibonacci levels are all available natively, and building a custom watchlist for tokens like HBAR is straightforward once you understand the setup.
If you want more background on HBAR's broader fundamental case alongside this technical picture, the full breakdown of Hedera's enterprise adoption and why it attracts institutional interest covers the network-level thesis in detail.
Probability, Not Certainty
The honest framing here is 75/25: approximately 75% probability that HBAR moves higher before any further significant downside, and 25% probability of continued selling pressure in the near term. That's not a guarantee in either direction — it's a probability-weighted read based on what MACD convergence, historically low RSI, and the broader total market structure are suggesting together. If the total market turns, HBAR should follow. If it doesn't, HBAR won't be immune.
If you want to follow the weekly chart updates on HBAR, the total market, and other tokens as this situation develops, the community at skool.com/crypto-profit publishes these analyses regularly and includes a full trading course covering how to use indicators like MACD and RSI across different timeframes.
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