Crypto Market Update: The Bear Market Pattern Is Breaking- Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoins Turn Bullish
This week's update starts macro and works down to the micro, using weekly charts to judge both direction and timing. The headline: after a long stretch of lower highs and lower lows, the pattern that defined this bear market is breaking — one chart at a time.
Not financial advice. Educational purposes only.
Macro First: Stocks and Oil Set the Backdrop
Before touching crypto, it helps to look at traditional risk-on assets. The Dow Jones is still above 50,000, which is remarkable on its own. Oil futures are sitting near $90, and the argument here is simple: energy prices move everything. With more supply coming online and the Strait of Hormuz situation working itself out, oil dropping back toward $70 or below would be a meaningful tailwind for risk assets — crypto included.
Macro doesn't tell you what to buy. It tells you whether the wind is at your back.
The Total Market Cap Broke Its Bear Pattern
Pull up TOTAL on a weekly chart and the bear market structure is obvious: a high, then a lower high, then another lower high, with matching lower lows underneath. That's the pattern that had to break.
It has. The total market has now closed two full weeks above the prior swing high, and volume has finally started cooperating. The current weekly bar doesn't count yet — it's still forming until Sunday — but everything behind it is locked in. If you want to follow along on the same chart, understanding how total crypto market cap is calculated and read makes these breakouts far easier to spot in real time.
Bitcoin, Then Ethereum, Then the Others
Bitcoin dominance has hovered near 60% for over a year. That's striking, because the total market went from roughly $3 trillion down to $2 trillion while Bitcoin's share barely moved — meaning the market and Bitcoin were walking in lockstep with almost no rotation. Watching what shifts in Bitcoin dominance signal for altcoins is how you catch that rotation starting.
Bitcoin is now entering its third week closed above the previous high. Ethereum broke out even earlier and was the first domino to fall. The size of those moves is the point: Bitcoin ran roughly 60k to 80k, about 30%. Ethereum ran from around $1,500 in June to $2,700 — close to 100%. Larger market caps move less.
That brings us to OTHERS — roughly coins ranked 10 through 120, which is most of the market cap outside the top names. Every time the MACD has crossed on that chart, price has shot up. The most recent cross retraced, held, and is now moving hard. Learning to read the OTHERS chart and what TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 measure is one of the most useful skills for timing altcoin rotation.
Altcoins Are Starting to Confirm
Quant ran from roughly $60 to over $300 — a 5x — on real bank testing news, and has barely retraced. A 50% pullback would be normal from here. XLM moved from $0.15 to $0.22, about 50%. Hedera not only jumped but closed a weekly candle above the prior weekly close, on substantial volume.
The sequence matters: total market broke first, then Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and now altcoins are confirming. That's the order these things usually happen in.
If you want to track these weekly closes yourself rather than taking anyone's word for it, setting up weekly charts and MACD alerts on TradingView is the practical starting point — the TOTAL, OTHERS, and dominance charts used in this update are all free to pull up.
Pick wisely. Do your due diligence. Know what you own. But in my opinion, this is the window where these charts deserve much closer attention.
Want to go deeper on reading weekly structure, dominance rotation, and position sizing before the next leg? Join the community and walkthroughs over at skool.com/crypto-profit, where we break these charts down week by week.
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