Market Down? Should you be Buying these Right Now? (BTC, ETH, AERO & HYPE)
Sharp drawdowns make most people freeze. The point of this session, recorded live on June 3 inside the Crypto School community, is simple: the whole idea is to buy low and sell high, so a red week is a time to look around for opportunity rather than panic. That doesn't mean buying blindly. It means knowing which charts are actually near fair value and which ones have already run.
None of this is financial advice. It's a walkthrough of how one investor reads a down market.
Total Market vs. Altcoins: Two Different Stories
The total crypto market cap chart dropped significantly during the week of the recording, driven partly by geopolitical pressure around Iran and oil. But total market cap is roughly 60% Bitcoin, so it mostly reflects what Bitcoin is doing.
Switching to "others" — the altcoin-only view — shows a much milder decline. Altcoins pulled back, but they didn't take the same violent drop, and the weekly candle was only three days old at the time. That distinction matters: reading total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts separately stops you from assuming everything is broken when only the majors are being hit.
Why Decentralized Exchanges Keep Coming Up
The two altcoins covered here are both decentralized exchanges, and that's deliberate. On a maturity scale from zero to 100, a lot of crypto categories are still describing what they might do. DEXs are already doing it — people are trading, using leverage, and generating real fee revenue on them.
AERO (Aerodrome) is the number one exchange on Base, the Ethereum layer 2 created by Coinbase. The logic is straightforward: for each layer, look at the leading exchange on it, because that's where the volume routes. AERO was trading near the low end of its all-time range at the time of recording, well below its earlier highs. It could fall further — but the upside potential looks larger than the downside. If you want the full picture of that ecosystem, this breakdown of how DeFi works on the Base network is a useful companion.
HYPE (Hyperliquid) is the opposite setup. It's a DEX on its own layer 1, one of the largest venues for perpetuals, and it sat near the upper end of its range even in a down market — partly on expectations around tokenized stocks and assets. Good business, not a discounted chart. Worth comparing against peers in this look at the top DeFi exchange tokens by revenue.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Near Fair Value
The reason BTC and ETH came up at all is that they'd fallen far enough to matter.
Using a volume profile back to 2023, Bitcoin's fair market value sat around $68,000 — and price was testing it near $66,000, down from the $120,000s. Either it turns, or it breaks toward the $40,000s. For anyone dollar-cost averaging, the $60–70K range is a reasonable long-term accumulation zone if the market turns bull.
Ethereum's volume profile back to 2021 put fair value near $1,600, with price around $1,800. Getting back to prior highs near $4,800 would be roughly a 3x — no new narrative required.
Volume profile is the tool doing the heavy lifting in both reads. If you want to run the same analysis yourself, learning to set up volume profile and weekly charts in TradingView is the fastest way to stop guessing where fair value sits. The free tier covers most of it; paid plans mainly add indicator count and alerts.
Buy Low, Sell High Is Easy to Say
Nobody looks at Bitcoin and Ethereum as buying opportunities when they're near range highs. They only look when price is down — which is exactly when sentiment says it's a bad market. That's the whole tension. A 2x or 3x from fair value doesn't require perfect timing, just the willingness to buy when it's uncomfortable and a position size you can live with if price drops another leg.
If you want to sit in on these sessions live — market updates Monday, copy trading Tuesday, investing Wednesday, and two more days of ways to make money in crypto — you can join the Crypto School community at skool.com/crypto-profit and work through the same charts in real time.
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